Johns Hopkins University has published a website graphically listing the number of 2019-nCoV cases in the world. (This survey can be found here). This article will cover why this is happening to China and what it means for the rest of us. Spoiler Alert. It’s good news for the rest of us.

2/24/2020 update: it looks like JHU no longer allows for public access of this data. boo!

Let’s go over the results together (as of 2/5/2020)!

# of confirmed cases in China orders of magnitude greater than the rest of the world

When reviewing the number of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases, one pattern is very striking. The vast majority of cases are in China. Other countries, even countries that are right next to China, have orders of magnitude fewer cases that the the undisputed King of Corona(virus).

What explains this very glaring difference?

Reason #1:

China is ground zero, so the virus had a “head start” infecting humans. More humans were already infected with the virus before this virus was even identified as a pathogen. By the time the Chinese government (Chinese Communist Party) took the virus seriously, they already had hundreds of infected with the coronavirus as they go about their daily business.

Reason #2:

Chinese Communist Party’s at fault. This is a fundamental weakness of a totalitarian government. Information has to be run up and down the “flag pole” for anything to get done. In China, this “situation” has to be decided on by Party Leaders who are less scientifically inclined than disease experts. Using USA as an example, scientists and physicians make up the bulk of the decision making at each stage of the emergency. So back to China. Do you know how the Party Leaders decided to act on initial reports of the coronavirus outbreak? They decided to deny the outbreak and cover up the whole thing! (tragic CNN story of the original Chinese doctor who sounded the alarm on 2019-nCoV) To summarize, the virus gets a head start in spreading as a totalitarian government decides on an action. It then gets another “free-pass” in spreading as the CCP picked “economy” over “public health.” Ultimately, the CCP admited to the 2019-nCoV outbreak when reality started to set in. By then, there were already too many people infected to properly control.

Reason #3:

The virus has the ability to spread from human-to-human, but its not that efficient in doing so. That’s a good thing for humans. Basic public health precautions is adequate in controlling the virus. All the non-China countries have implemented these basic precautions with pretty decent control in virus spread. Every identified infected human that gets quarantined is a dead-end for the virus to infect the next guy.

Reason #4:

There is no asymptomatic spread of the virus. Otherwise, the non-China countries would have accelerating infected people similar to the rate of China.  Past reports of asymptomatic spread were disinformation or bad information to promote the click-bait narrative of fear – the easiest way to get eyeballs in social media. We are over a month into this outbreak, the rate at which people are confirmed positive do not support asymptomatic spread.

Reason #5:

China our hero. China took the brunt of the infection. It’s kind of like having one soldier run forward to reveal the machine gun nest for the rest of the group. That’s China with 2019-nCoV.  They also shared much information about 2019-nCoV when they decided to do so. They didn’t have to. USA is in a trade war with them, neighboring countries also disputing the South China Sea. They shared info anyways and positively impacted the effectiveness of how the rest of the world reacted to this new disease.

China’s # of infected reached a breaking point just before 1/24/2020, triggering an acceleration of infected

No other countries have reached that breaking point yet

Let’s summarize what we know about the 2019-nCoV’s spread:

1. Virus can spread from human to human, but its effectiveness of spreading is only moderate.

2. Basic public health measures is adequate in controlling the virus.

3. In each of our respective societies, so long as the number of infected citizens do not increase past a “breaking-point,” the epidemic will likely be definitely contained.

4. China is the only country, as of today, with a number of infected citizens surpassing this breaking-point. That is why they experienced an acceleration of infected while the rest of the world has a pretty constant infected rate.

The “breaking-point” of 2019-nCoV is when you have a certain number of infected people that exceeds what the public health measure can control. If there are more infected citizens in a society than the public health measures can contain, than there will be a snowball effect of ever more people being infected and infecting others.

So long as we all (government and people) take 2019-nCoV seriously and maintain our public health standards, I predict that this virus will be controlled. China, on the other hand, may be entering into a catastrophe if the rate of infected people do not slow down. China’s economy is integrated with the world, so expect all of our economies to be closely affected with what happens in China.

Disclaimer:

GreySheepMD has the utmost respect for the Chinese people and even (for the most part) the CCP.

This post was written from my experiences as a licensed medical doctor in California in addition to the following resources: 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

GreySheepMD’s promotional section:

Writing these blog articles take up way more time that I have expected! I decided to add this promotional section to monetize some my efforts… mainly to give my wife some justification as to why I’m spending so much of “personal free-time” working on this blogging project.  I thought that it will be helpful to the reader to list a few relevant product suggestions that I have personal experience with. For those who are not familiar with how monetization works: I’ll be listing some products that I recommend, and if my reader clicks on the link and makes a purchase, I will be credit with a portion (a very small portion) of the sale. 

  • Balaclavas– Unisex fashion accessories that act as a face mask to protect yourself from microscopic mucous droplets in a public space. We know 2019-nCoV spread by respiratory droplets. Asian citizens wear medical masks everywhere they go to protect themselves, but this is not the norm in ‘Merica! We can still protect ourselves, and at the same time not look like a total anxious nutcase in public, by wearing these breathable balaclavas.

If you do support me by making a purchase through these links, I would like to make eye contact with you and say “thank you!”